CARACAS, Venezuela, Nov. 17 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- A nationwide tracking
poll conducted among the most likely Venezuela voters in advance of the
December 3rd Presidential Election shows the race tightening between
incumbent President Hugo Chavez and opposition candidate, Governor Manuel
Rosales, with Chavez losing support and Rosales picking up considerable
support in recent weeks.
The data collected shows that President Hugo Chavez leads Manuel Rosales
by just 6 points, compared with a lead of 13 points in September.
The November poll found 48% voting for Chavez and 42% voting for
Rosales. Compared to Penn, Schoen & Berland’s poll in September, Hugo
Chavez’s level of support has declined 2 points, from 50% to 48%, while
Manuel Rosales has increased his level of support 5 points from 37% to 42%.
Question Text: If the presidential elections were held today for whom
would you vote?
September November
Hugo Chavez 50% 48%
Manual Rosales 37% 42%
Benjamin Rausseo 3% 1%
Undecided 9% 9%
"The momentum is clearly with Rosales," said Dr. Douglas E. Schoen,
Chairman of Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates. "Rosales is making inroads
and the country is now evenly divided on the direction of the country and
Chavez’s performance as president."
Penn, Schoen & Berland’s data follows a similar pattern of Alfredo
Keller of ASKA Partners, whose recent poll found that Chavez’s lead has
diminished significantly from 50% for Chavez and 37% for Rosales in
September, to 52% for Chavez and 48% for Rosales as of last week.
Penn, Schoen & Berland’s survey also asked Venezuelans to rate the job
Hugo Chavez is doing as president.
Chavez’s rating declined slightly since September, and the public is now
evenly split. Today, 50% say Chavez is doing an excellent or good job as
president and 50% think Chavez is doing just a fair or poor job as president.
Question Text: How would you rate the job Hugo Chavez has done is doing
as President? Excellent, Good, Fair or Poor?
September November
Excellent / Good 51% 50%
Fair / Poor 48% 50%
Don’t Know 1% 0%
The poll also asked Venezuelan’s whether they believe the country is
headed in right direction or is headed in the wrong direction. Dr. Schoen
found that sentiment indicating that the country is headed in the wrong
direction has increased since the last poll, and public opinion is now evenly
split.
About this Dr. Schoen said, "When 50% of the people think that you are
doing a bad job and almost 50% of the people say that the country is moving
in the wrong direction, that is a real cause for alarm for any incumbent.
Simply put, many Venezuelans are clearly unhappy with how things are going
under Hugo Chavez."
Question Text: In general, do you think that things in Venezuela are
going in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
Sept Nov
Venezuela is moving in the right direction 48% 47%
Venezuela is moving on the wrong direction 39% 46%
Undecided on this question 14% 6%
Background:
The Penn, Schoen & Berland poll was a nationwide poll of 1,000 likely
voters. The administration of the survey was designed to ensure that survey
respondents felt anonymous.
This was an independent poll done for a consortium of business leaders
seeking an accurate read of the where the race stands.
Interviews were conducted between Monday November 6 and Friday November
10. The overall margin of sampling error is +/ - 3.10%
Dr. Douglas E. Schoen is one of the world’s leading authorities on
measuring public opinion. Over his 30 year career that has included work on
6 continents, Dr. Schoen has worked for Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Ehud
Olmert, Tony Blair, Silvio Berlusconi, Leonel Fernandez, New York City Mayor
Mike Bloomberg, and New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine.
Dr. Schoen is one of the founding partners and current Chairman of Penn,
Schoen & Berland Associates, which is based in New York City and Washington,
DC.
NOTE TO EDITORS:
Dr. Schoen is available for both comment and media appearances. He can
be reached at 646-206-5955 or by email at dschoen@ps-b.com. Spanish speaking
media can contact Marcela Berland at (917) 318-4365 or at marcela@ps-b.com
